WASHINGTON–While most of the country and even the world will be transfixed by the outcome of today’s presidential election, for credit unions and their members the real fallout is most likely to be found in what becomes of Congress.
The biggest question: will the Democrats win a majority in the Senate, giving them control over Congress (as Democrats are expected to maintain their majority in the House)? Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Or, will the GOP retain the Senate but a Democrat will win the presidency? Or the Dems win the Senate but Donald Trump is re-elected. Or…
The election results will affect everything from the legislative priorities of all the various committees and which legislation eventually makes it to the president’s desk—where it could die or be signed into law depending on who is sitting in the Oval Office—to who serves on the NCUA board, including as chairman, to what takes place during the lame duck congressional session following the elections.
“We will be watching the congressional races to see if the Democrats take the Senate,” agreed Carrie Hunt, EVP and general counsel with NAFCU. “The big issue is what a majority might look like If the GOP holds on but (Joe) Biden wins the presidency; that changes the tenor of those discussions.”
Carrie Hunt
Hunt added NAFCU has had conversations with the Biden campaign and has “talked to a lot of people in that camp. Many are not new to policy, and worked in the Obama administration.
Close Races
Both NAFCU and CUNA said they are paying particular attention to several Senate races, including incumbents Sen. Doug Jones (D) in Alabama, Sen. Martha McSally, Republican representing Arizona, Sen. Tina Smith, Democrat from Minnesota, and Sen. Gary Peters, Democrat from Minnesota, all of whom are in very tight sprints to the finish.
CUNA and its political action committee, the Credit Union Legislative Action Council, along with the state leagues have spent more than $7 million in the current election cycle backing some 411 candidates as they seek to support a “pro-credit union majority” in Congress, according to Trey Hawkins, CUNA’s deputy chief advocacy officer.
Those funds have been roughly equally divided between Republican and Democratic candidates, Hawkins said.
Of that $7 million, $3 million has gone to 11 especially tight House and Senate races involving “credit union champions,” CUNA reported.
Getting the Big Dollars
Among the House candidates who have received big dollars in the form of independent expenditures by CUNA have been Rep. Jared Golden, Democrat in Maine’s 2nd congressional district; Rep. Susie Lee, Democrat in Nevada’s 3rd congressional district, Rep. Steve Chabot, Republican in Ohio’s 1st congressional district, and Rep. Ron Bacon, Republican in Indiana.
Not all of the big bets have paid off. CULAC and the League of Southeastern Credit Unions spent $320,000 in support of Republican Dane Eagle to represent the Florida’s 10th district in Congress, but Eagle lost in the primary. Earlier this year CULAC joined the Illinois CU League in backing Rep. Dan Lipinski, but Lipinski lost in a very tight primary race to challenger Marie Newman.
CULAC has sent more than 100 different digital ads or mailers as part of the support for the 11 candidates, all with positive messages extolling the candidates for their support of credit unions, according to Hawkins.
Hawkins added that CUNA, through its CreditUnionsVote.com site, which is aimed at encouraging CU members to cast their ballot, register to vote, learn where to vote, etc., has resulted in 27,000 credit union members using the site.
The Lame Duck
The multitude of ways today’s election results will affect credit unions are difficult to quantify, beginning with the lame duck session of Congress. Should the Democrats win control of both houses effective with the new Congress, it would “definitely” create an impetus for Republicans to push through their priorities and those for which there is bipartisan support, said NAFCU’s Hunt.
Some of those issues would include BSA/AML legislation, Hunt noted, adding Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) tactics in getting Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court through the Senate make clear he has no “philosophical” issues related to the lame duck session when it comes to getting what he wants.
Trey Hawkins
The NCUA Board
Then there is the composition of the NCUA board. J. Mark McWatters has been serving on the board since 2014 and his term has expired. In July, McWatters even offered some parting remarks, as CUToday.info reported here.
But four months later McWatters remains on the board, as no vote has been scheduled on his replacement, Kyle Hauptman, who has already been through a confirmation hearing. It’s possible Hauptman might not join the board should a vote not take place in the Senate.
Stalemates?
If Hauptman’s nomination is approved, it could create an NCUA board scenario in which the chairman is the minority member. If Biden is elected president, he could elevate board member Todd Harper to chairman, replacing current Chairman Rodney Hood, who is a Republican appointee.
While Harper might find himself at a 2-1 disadvantage on the board, the NCUA chairman does control the board agenda.
In that case, said Hunt, it could be similar to the two-person NCUA board the agency operated with for some time when McWatters was joined by former Board Member Rick Metsger, a Democrat. The McWatters/Metsger board earned a name for actually accomplishing quite a bit, as nothing could move forward unless there was agreement first.
The other option, observed Hunt: “A lot of stalemates.”
Another Complication
There is also another complication. Harper’s term is set to expire in the Summer of 2021. That status could affect negotiations around future NCUA board members, said Hunt.