PARADISE ISLAND, Bahamas–How did Donald Trump emerge to win the presidency of the United States, and why are other Trump-like candidates being elected in other countries around the world?
One person who has been an advisor to presidents and who predicted the rise of populist candidates shared her views on those questions during a Q&A as part of the World Credit Union Conference here.
Dr. Pippa Malmgren, an economic trends forecaster who was an advisor to President George W. Bush and several British prime ministers, authored the 2015 book “Signals: The Breakdown of the Social Contract and the Rise of Geopolitics,” in which she had predicted the political winds were shifting.
“People think populism is local, but in fact its global,” said Malmgren. “The real question is what is causing it and I think the underlying cause is the (government) debt problem. It’s like a wrecking ball that breaks down the social fabric; it breaks the promises that hold everyone together. It leads people to ask, ‘Why are you in charge?’
“Second, Trump is a fascinating phenomenon in that he is so polarizing and divisive. There are a lot of his policy stances that a lot of people could support, but the way he talks is the problem. It’s fascinating in the sense, how do we explain the economy is doing very, very well? It’s because of him or in spite of him, depending on your view. My view is the economy was doing very, very well before him. It’s not the result of his policies. But the markets like his lower taxes, his cutting of red tape.”
Where Do We Go From Here?
When Malmgren was asked where the U.S. and the world “goes from here,” she responded, “I can envision we may stay in this populist environment for longer than we thought. It’s partly because the Democrats don’t have a candidate, but more importantly, they don’t have a story. If they can answer that question, then we could have a new situation.
“The presidential race is almost always won by someone you’ve never heard of,” continued Malmgren, who lives in Great Britain. “Three years before they became president, nobody ever heard of Bill Clinton or Obama. What is clear is the American public wants someone who doesn’t come from politics. I think they will persist with this desire to have an outsider. One third of last congressional election were people who never worked in politics before, and that may be universal.”