Who Will Win Super Bowl? A Forecast Based on CU Performance Data

GLENDALE, Ariz.–Who will win the upcoming Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs? If the outcome is based on lending performance of credit unions in the respective markets, it will be the Chiefs, according to an analysis conducted by Callahan & Associates.

“In overtime, winners come down to who can originate the most big plays. Can Philadelphia credit unions outpace Kansas City in annual loan origination growth? It’s possible on any given Sunday … but that kind of comeback doesn’t look promising,” Callahan’s said in releasing its findings. “Kansas City credit unions not only recently overtook Philadelphia credit unions when it comes to loan balance growth, but they’ve also surpassed Philadelphia in the dollar value of origination growth in every quarter since the second quarter of 2021.

“Unfortunately for Philadelphia credit unions, they’ve reported a year-over-year decrease in originations and trail their Kansas City peers’ growth rate by nearly 10 percentage points,” Callahan’s continued.

According to the company’s research, the first mortgage market has been a “battle in the trenches” for both cities.

The ‘Ma-Homes’ Advantage

“In the third quarter of 2022, credit unions in both Philadelphia and Kansas City reported 50% declines year-over-year in first mortgages originated, so the ‘ma-Homes’ advantage is neutralized,” Callahan’s said. “Still, the origination market hasn’t been bad news for all loan types. In the second and third quarters, Kansas City posted 50% and 43% annual growth in other real estate originations as Kansas City members established the run through a revolving HELOC-based ground game. As performance data has already indicated, credit unions in both cities are doing well putting borrowers into automobiles, but Kansas City’s strategy has proven slightly more effective.”

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