SAN FRANCISCO—Who will win the presidential election, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?
It’s a question (over) filling the time of many news broadcasts and websites. According to the creator of The Money Anxiety Index, Dr. Dan Geller, The Money Anxiety Index has a perfect track record for predicting presidential reelections.
In all nine presidential reelections in the past 50 years, the incumbent won only when the Money Anxiety Index declined during the reelection year. For Hilary Clinton, the index needs to be below the January reading of 60.4 to win the presidency. Conversely, presidents running for reelection lost when the Money Anxiety Index increased between January and November, Geller said.
The most recent example is Obama's reelection, Geller said. In January of 2012, the Money Anxiety Index stood at 90.9, and declined to 87.1 by November – a reliable indication that President Obama will be reelected based on the track record of the Money Anxiety Index to predict reelection outcome. In the past 50 years, incumbent presidents, running for reelection, won only when the Money Anxiety Index decreased between January and November of the reelection year.
So where does the Money Anxiety Index stand?
According to Geller, if the Money Anxiety Index stays below 60.4 by Election Day, Hillary Clinton could become the next president. If not, Trump is likely to win.
The preliminary September Money Anxiety Index stands at 59.9, down 0.1 point from the final August reading. The index improved only 0.5 points since January of this year, which points to a persistent level of financial anxiety among people, the company forecast.