BASINGSTOKE, U.K.–The value of payments via CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) will reach $213 billion annually by 2030, up an astounding 260,000% from just $100 million in 2023, according to a new forecast.
The prediction was made in a new study from Juniper Research, which said the “radical growth” reflects the early stage of the sector that is currently limited to pilot projects.
“Adoption will be driven by governments leveraging CBDCs to boost financial inclusion and increase control over how digital payments are made,” Juniper Research said. “CBDCs will improve access to digital payments, particularly in emerging economies; where mobile penetration is significantly higher than banking penetration.”
Domestic Payments a Key Driver
According to Juniper Research, its analysis found that by 2030, 92% of the total value transacted via CBDCs will be paid domestically.
“This reflects a change from almost 100% during current pilot stages, as of 2023,” the company said.
Since CBDCs are issued by central banks, they will be closely targeted to domestic payment challenges initially, with cross-border payments coming later, as systems become established and links are made between CBDCs used by individual countries, Juniper added.
“While cross-border payments currently have high costs and slow transaction speeds, this area is not the focus of CBDC development,” said report author Nick Maynard. “CBDC adoption will be very country specific, it will be incumbent on cross-border payment networks to link schemes together; allowing the wider payments industry to benefit from CBDCs.”
High Demand
In addition, Juniper said the research identified lack of commercial product development around CBDCs as a key limiting factor for the current market, with few well-defined platforms for central banks to leverage.
The research recommends prospective CBDC platform providers develop a full end-to-end solution, including wholesale capabilities, wallet provision and merchant acceptance, in order to enable the realization of CBDCs’ potential.
A white paper can be found here.
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