WASHINGTON—Expect Mark McWatters to become chairman of the NCUA board early next year, as well as the creation of board to be established to oversee the CFPB.
That’s the forecast from former NCUA Chairman Dennis Dollar, who sees those outcomes and others as the result of Tuesday’s elections, which left Republicans in control of the House and Senate and Donald J. Trump leading the nation.
“There is no doubt that the Trump victory, coupled with the Republicans retaining control of the House and Senate, will bring about changes at both the NCUA and the CFPB,” said the Dollar Associates principal. “If history holds true, it is likely that Trump will make the sitting Republican board member McWatters into NCUA chairman shortly after he is sworn in.”
Dollar said that the final NCUA board member nominated in 2017 will be another Republican, probably much more aligned with McWatters than with former Chairman Debbie Matz and current Chairman Rick Metsger.
“That change, coupled with Metsger’s term expiring in August 2017, will have an impact on the second FOM regulation and likely the supplemental capital issue as well,” said Dollar. “Both are much more likely to move under McWatters as chairman.”
Dollar added that the nomination of John Herrera to the NCUA board is “certainly dead at this point, although John is a real possibility for being able to be considered for the Democrat slot on the board that will come up at the expiration of Metsger’s term.
Dollar predicted that the McWatters nomination to the Export-Import Bank board would expire at the end of this year without McWatters being confirmed, and would not be made again in 2017 under Trump.
"My guess is that Trump, who like a number of prominent Republican senators, is not a big fan of the loans the Export-Import Bank makes at times that some say chooses winners and losers, would much rather have McWatters at NCUA than at an agency like Ex-Im that may have a short term or more limited future under a Republican administration," said Dollar.
Dollar said the biggest impact may well be at the CFPB, where the likelihood of a board being established, the exam threshold being raised and congressional oversight of the agency’s budget being established is very possible with Trump and a Republican Congress.
“Buttressed by a recent court opinion questioning the constitutionality of the CFPB’s structure itself, the odds of significant change to the CFPB’s structure – as well as to their aggressiveness – increased dramatically with the Trump victory and the retention of control of both houses of Congress by the Republicans,” said Dollar.
For related coverage on what might lie ahead for NCUA and the CFPB, go here.