ARLINGTON, Va.—Although total vehicle sales fell to 16.5 million annualized units in October from September's rate of 17.1 million – and were down 5.3% from a year ago – NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long noted that "the auto market has remained remarkably stable since 2015."
"That steadiness is a testament to a solid labor market and consistently high consumer sentiment," Long said in a Macro Data Flashreport. "Lower interest rates are supporting demand, but car prices are still high in relation to modest wage growth."
While NAFCU is projecting auto sales will remain steady through next year, Long flagged that "total sales for the year are on pace to finish just below 17 million units; if that holds up, it would be the first time since 2014 that carmakers have failed to reach that level."
Car sales fell 5.4% to 4.4 million annualized unites during the month, and sales of light trucks decreased 2.8% to 12.2 million annualized units.
Among the car makers, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles were hit hardest during the month's slowdown (-9.7% and -12%, respectively). Nissan saw sales fall more than 7%, making it the hardest-hit importer.
After 6 Months of Growth, Total Retail Sales Down Slightly
Meanwhile, total retail sales rose 0.3% in October, following a decline in September that ended six consecutive months of growth.
"Solid job growth will continue to drive moderate retail sales growth into the medium-term. Trade tensions are an unpredictable risk, although a partial trade deal with China now seems possible," said Long.
Year-over-year growth in retail sales was 3.1% in October, down from 4.1% in September. Control group sales increased 3.7% from a year ago.
Among the major retail segments, seven of the 13 categories fell in October, similar to the previous month, with clothing and accessory stores and furniture stores seeing the sharpest drops, Long said.