ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales surged 17.7% in May, marking the biggest monthly jump on record and a big rebound from April. But it should also be noted April was the first full month of the pandemic lockdown in most of the U.S., causing retail sales to plunge.
May's numbers provide "more evidence that April was likely the bottom of the cycle," noted NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long.
"One large question remains: how important was fiscal stimulus?" said Long. "Expanded unemployment benefits and one-time stimulus checks undoubtedly served to support May sales to some extent.
"If the impact was a large one, further improvement hinges on the continued support from Congress," continued Long. "Regardless, the fact that a strong bounce back in economic activity occurred earlier than expected limits the long-term structural damage to the economy coming from shuttered businesses and long-term unemployment."
Year-over-year growth in retail sales was down 6.1% in May following a 20% dip in April. Control group sales decreased 5.7% from a year ago.
The Retail Segments
Results among the major retail segments also made an impressive recovery, Long noted. Compared to last month, the clothing sector rebounded 188%, followed by the furniture sector (+89.7%), sporting good and hobby stores (+88.2%), and electronics stores (+50.5%).
Long stressed that despite the gains, most sectors are still well below their year-ago levels.
"There is still a large gap to fill in the economy, but the signs lately are undeniably positive," Long concluded.