ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales declined 1.3% in May following April's modest, upwardly revised rise, but are still up significantly over one year earlier. The March number was further upwardly revised to a 11.3% rise.
"Retail sales declined in May following two months of strong sales," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long. "Sales still remain at a high level due to general economic improvement and some lingering stimulus – the total value of retail sales in May was up 18% versus February 2020.”
"What we are seeing now is consumers shifting away from goods and back to services now that most of the country is substantially reopened," added Long. "One of the biggest declines during the month was in autos, where supply issues are holding back sales."
The YoY Numbers
Year-over-year, sales were up 28.1% in May, which is down from +53.4% in April. Control group sales were up 25.5% from a year ago.
Results within sectors were mostly negative during the month, according to the new federal data. The clothing sector rose 3% while the health and personal care sector and food service sector both rose 1.8%. The largest drops were in building material stores (-5.9%), miscellaneous stores (-5%), motor vehicle and parts dealers (- 3.7%), and electronics and appliance stores (-3.4%).
"NAFCU expects retail sales to remain strong through 2021, albeit it with some potential volatility due to the rotation back to services, various supply chain issues, and pockets of high inflation,” Long concluded.