CHICAGO–TransUnion is predicting that the consumer lending market will by the end of 2016 finally fully recover from both the mortgage crisis and the ensuing Great Recession that concluded more than six years ago.
TransUnion is forecasting the national mortgage loan serious delinquency rate (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) will decline from 2.50% at the end of 2015 to 2.06% at the conclusion of 2016. Consumer level mortgage delinquency rates peaked in Q1 2010 at 6.94% and have been declining nearly every quarter since.
According to TransUnion, serious delinquency rates on credit cards (the ratio of bankcard borrowers 90 days or more delinquent on one or more of their credit cards) are expected to conclude 2016 at 1.46%. That would mark the fourth consecutive year of delinquency rates just below 1.5%, a nearly 50% decline in delinquency rates fro m the end of 2009, TransUnion said.
"Our forecast highlights that we are no longer in recovery – we have recovered from the Great Recession," said Ezra Becker, TransUnion's vice president of research and consulting, in a statement. "Both the mortgage and credit card markets are performing extremely well, with increased consumer participation and continued low delinquency rates.”