Tax Refunds Should Goose Decelerating Consumer Credit At CUs, Says NAFCU Economist

Curt Long, NAFCU

ARLINGTON, Va.—While total consumer credit rose 3.3% in February, its growth decelerated for the third consecutive month.

However, NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long said credit card spending is expected to improve in the coming months as households receive their tax refunds.

Total consumer credit increased 4.9% in January and 6% in December (all seasonally adjusted annual rates). From a year ago, total consumer credit was up 5.1%, Long noted.

Non-revolving credit, which is mostly motor vehicle and education loans, rose 4.4%, while revolving credit, which is primarily credit cards, increased 0.2%. From last year, non-revolving credit increased 5%, while revolving credit increased 5.5%.

"The revolving segment reported its smallest gain since November 2013," Long said in a NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. "Non-revolving credit growth also slowed, but the gain was in line with the average in 2017."

Regarding the credit union industry, its total consumer credit decreased 0.2% in February from the previous month, compared to a 1.3% decline for banks and a 0.5% decrease for financial companies.

Credit unions' share of the total consumer credit market remained at 11.2% in February – up from last year's 10.8%. Banks had 41.2% and financial companies held 14% of the market in February, Long said.

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