Retail Sales Grew Moderately in February as Inflation Takes Its Toll

ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales rose by 0.3% in February, following an increase of 4.9% in January and a decrease of 2.7% in December.

Curt Long, NAFCU

"Retail sales slowed but stayed positive in February on a seasonally-adjusted basis," stated NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long. “Retail spending is reported in nominal terms, and the modest gains in February were far eclipsed by inflation last month."

Many sectors were winners in February, the biggest being gasoline stations (+5.3%), food services and drinking places (+2.5%), and miscellaneous store retailers (+1.9%). Losses hit several sectors in February including sales at nonstore retailers which fell by 3.7%, followed by health and professional care stores (-1.8%) and home furnishings stores (-0.9%).

"Gains were highly concentrated in gas stations, which increased 2.5%, and areas that benefitted from declining COVID cases, such as restaurants and department stores," added Long. "While a month of negative real spending will soothe inflation fears, it should be noted that January’s sturdy advance estimate was bumped up to a robust 4.9% gain."

Big YoY Gains

Year-over-year growth in retail sales were up 17.5% during the month, which is up from 13.8% in January. Control group sales – which excludes auto, gas, and building material categories – were up 15.9% from a year ago.

“It will take several more months of subdued consumer spending to alleviate the momentum in price growth,” concluded Long.

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