ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales jumped 0.7% in September, following August’s upwardly revised rise. Of note, the July number was also revised higher, though it still fell by 1.6%.
"Retail sales rose in September, beating analyst expectations," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long. “Although sales have been essentially flat since March, they remain at an elevated level and far higher than the pre-COVID trend.
"The supply chain is still the top issue entering the holiday shopping season," added Long. "Warnings of empty shelves in November and December may push some purchases into October, which would then be repaid in the following months."
Year-over-year growth in retail sales was up 13.8% during the month, down from 15.1% in August. Control group sales were also up from a year ago, rising 14.2%. Figures are still compared to recovery last year.
Results among the major retail segments were mostly good during the month. Sporting goods stores led the way with a 3.7% rise while general merchandise stores rose 2% and gas stations saw a 1.8% rise. Food service and drinking places rose only 0.3%, the second consecutive month of slow growth. The only drop on the month was in electronics stores (-0.9%).
Some Concerns
"There are concerns that consumer demand for goods may begin to flag given this year's heavy spending. But the U.S. consumer is relatively confident and likely to keep spending," Long concluded. “NAFCU expects a modest dip in spending at the end of the year on a seasonally-adjusted basis, but sales should remain on a solid trajectory over the medium term."