MEXICO CITY — After 11 straight years of expansion, remittances to Mexico declined in 2025 for the first time since 2013, signaling a potential turning point for a key source of household income, BBVA Research reported.
Mexico received $61.8 billion in family remittances last year — a 4.6% year-on-year decrease, according to BBVA Research, ending a period in which inflows had nearly tripled since 2014. The drop reflects weaker U.S. labor conditions for migrants, tighter border controls, and the stronger Mexican peso, BBVA said.
There were some signs of stabilization at year-end. Remittances totaled $5.32 billion in December, up 1.9% from a year earlier, breaking an eight-month streak of declines, BBVA noted.
While national totals fell, remittances rose in nine Mexican states in 2025, led by Baja California (+22.2%), followed by Campeche, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Morelos, Yucatán, Puebla, Zacatecas, and Veracruz, BBVA reported. By contrast, flows to the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean grew by more than 16% on average, with especially sharp increases in Honduras (+25.3%), Guatemala (+18.7%), and El Salvador (+17.8%), BBVA said.
Looking ahead, BBVA warned that remittances to Mexico face three major risks in 2026: a possible U.S. economic slowdown, stricter immigration enforcement under the Trump administration, and further appreciation of the peso — all of which could dampen dollar inflows from migrants abroad.