WASHINGTON—More concerns about a recession are being raised due to the recent inversion of the yield curve.
As CUToday.info reported here, long-term yields last week fell below yields on short-term bonds, an occurrence that has preceded every recession over the last 60 years. It should be noted there are also other ways to measure the yield curve, with many Wall Street analysts looking at the difference between yields on two-year and 10-year Treasury notes, which has not yet inverted.
NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long is among those sharing his own concerns over what the yield curve inversion might mean.
"The economic data continue to point toward slower, but still positive, growth," Long said. "But recessionary risks are undoubtedly elevated and so are fears. That alone could be enough to lead to a recession."
Long noted that in addition to the yield curve, economists also look to other indicators for what the economy might hold, including the unemployment rate and corporate debt. The unemployment rate remains at near historical lows.