NEW YORK—U.S. outbound remittances are expected to grow only modestly in 2026—a shift credit unions with active remittance programs will want to watch closely.
New analysis from The Dialogue projects total U.S. transfers to Latin America and the Caribbean to increase somewhere between 0% and 4%, landing near $138 billion. That marks a sharp slowdown from 2025, when many markets saw double-digit gains driven by wage growth and larger average transfers.
The Dialogue attributes the deceleration primarily to shrinking migration flows and a decline in new remittance senders. Between 2018 and 2024, new arrivals accounted for roughly 3% of all senders and helped sustain strong volume growth. In 2026, however, that figure is likely to dip below 1%—or turn negative—as migrant entry slows, deportations rise, and fewer young migrants enter the workforce and begin sending money home.
For remittance-serving credit unions, one of the most important takeaways is that average ticket size—not sender growth—will be the primary driver of any volume gains next year. The Dialogue notes that while the number of senders is flattening, many migrants increased the amount remitted in 2025—often more than 20%—as a risk-mitigation strategy amid heightened enforcement and fears of deportation. Whether that pattern continues will depend on economic conditions in migrants’ home countries and purchasing-power pressures.
The report also points out differences across nationalities that organizations should consider when evaluating pricing, corridor mix, and marketing. For example, Mexican remittance growth is slowing more sharply because its migration pipeline is now dominated by stable guest-worker programs rather than new permanent or irregular arrivals. Other Central American countries may continue to see higher average transfer amounts even as sender numbers decline.
Overall, The Dialogue concludes that 2026 is shaping up to be a flat or slightly positive year for remittances. For credit unions, that means planning for steadier, lower-growth corridors—and paying close attention to member behavior, compliance risk, and product competitiveness in markets where migrant senders may face declining income stability and greater uncertainty.