WASHINGTON— U.S. job growth rebounded in March after a surprising decline the month before, with employers adding 178,000 jobs and private-sector hiring coming in much stronger than expected, a result analyst Brian Turner said gives the Federal Reserve added cover to keep rates steady as policymakers continue to watch inflation and broader labor-market shifts.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, while private payrolls rose by 186,000 jobs, well above expectations for a 70,000 gain. Government payrolls fell by 8,000. Turner, president and chief economist at Meridian Economics, said the report points to a labor market that remains resilient, even as the broader 2026 story is one of “recalibration rather than acceleration” rather than a return to the stronger hiring pace seen in prior cycles.
“The U.S. economy added jobs in March as the labor market rebounded after it unexpectedly shed jobs a month ago,” Turner said in comments provided following the report. He added that “we continue to see healthy job opportunities,” even as he warned that “this year will most likely be a year of shifting labor dynamics as artificial intelligence upends the job market, especially for low-skilled roles.”
Turner also said wage growth remains supportive for consumers, noting that average hourly earnings rose 3.5% from a year earlier, which he said is giving households “enough buying power to overcome nagging inflation.” In his view, the March employment report “gives the Federal Reserve more time to wait for inflation to decelerate” before taking action on rates, particularly for workers with experience.
Revisions to prior months were mixed, with January revised up by 34,000 jobs to 160,000 and February revised down by 41,000, from a previously reported loss of 92,000 to a loss of 133,000. Turner said the latest data did little to alter expectations for the central bank, adding that his firm’s metric shows a 99.5% probability the Fed will leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at its April meeting.