PURCHASE, N.Y.—It’s shaping up to be a big holiday shopping season, according to a forecast from Mastercard’s latest SpendingPulse report.
The study, which provides insights into overall retail spending trends, is predicting a “banner year” for online and in-store commerce across all payment types.
Total retail sales (excluding automotive) are expected to grow 5% and e-commerce at 20% over last year.
“Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, you can expect overall U.S. retail sales (excluding automotive) to come in 50% higher than 10 years ago—and 19% higher than just five years ago,” Mastercard said.
Ecommerce sales this season should be especially strong, up 104% for the entire season compared to five years ago, the report noted.
‘Loading Up Their Plates’
“Holiday buyers are really going to be loading up their plates—with overall sales on Thanksgiving weekend up 19% compared to five years ago and eCommerce up 137%. And they have an entire buffet of options for engagement,” said Mastercard in its forecast.
According to Mastercard, the way consumers buy—and make buying decisions—is evolving. In-store shopping, online purchasing, and blended experiences, such as “buy online/pick up in store” are all on the menu. In particular, commerce via social media platforms and other emerging business models are reshaping the face of marketing and sales. Consumers are looking at what’s in their pockets, and they’re finding their phones as well as their wallets, with about 80% of purchase decisions being affected by mobile, Mastercard said.
A Challenge to Black Friday
Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts that Sunday, Dec. 23 will see about the same sales volume as Black Friday, Nov. 23.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, American consumers will spend more than $60 billion on retail purchases during the Friday-through-Sunday final weekend before Christmas. That’s 50% more than a decade ago—and 19% more than just five years ago.