Is Rise in Used Car Values Starting to Tap Brakes? Analysis Suggests So

LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga.—Could the steady rise in used vehicle values be slowing? A new report from Black Book indicates that could be the case.

Black Book is reporting its Used Vehicle Retention Index for December increased to 195.7 points—a 5.8-point (or 3.1%) increase from November (189.9).

The Index currently stands 52.0% above where it was this same time last year.

“During the last two weeks of 2021, we started to see declines in wholesale prices in multiple segments, leading to only a small increase in the overall monthly Retention Index,” said Alex Yurchenko, chief data science officer at Black Book. “As new inventory levels leveled off (and improved for some OEMs) and consumer demand softened, demand at wholesale channels slowed down at the end of the year. We expect a stable wholesale market in January, even as the number of COVID cases increases significantly across the country.”  

The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition.

Click here to obtain a copy of the latest Index data.  

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