ARLINGTON, Va.—On a seasonally-adjusted basis, overall consumer prices rose 0.2% in November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the overall consumer price index (CPI) grew 1.2% over the 12-month period.
"As the recovery slows down, inflation should also pause until the post-vaccine recovery begins," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long. "Whenever that point is reached, it could ignite inflation in certain pockets, but risks remain weighted to the downside overall."
Energy prices rose 0.4% during the month, following a 0.1 rise in October. From a year ago, energy prices were down 9.4%. Additionally, food prices dipped 0.1% in November but are up 3.7% compared to this time last year.
"Housing and rental price growth was over 3% year-over-year prior to the pandemic, but has steadily slowed to just 1.9% as of November," Long added. "Given that housing costs represent one-third of total consumption, it is unlikely that headline inflation will truly take off until that piece starts to accelerate…NAFCU expects low rates to remain in place at least through the end of 2021."
Core prices (excluding food and energy costs) rose 0.2% compared to October. Year-over-year core CPI growth was 1.7%.