How Home Prices Have Performed, Plus What’s Ahead

Frank Nothaft

IRVINE, Calif.–To the surprise of few people, new data show home prices are up strongly both year over year and month over month.

Home prices nationally increased year over year by 6.6% from May 2016 to May 2017, and on a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.2% in May 2017 compared with April 2017, according to the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI).

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.3% on a year-over-year basis from May 2017 to May 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.9% from May 2017 to June 2017, the company said.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“The market remained robust with home sales and prices continuing to increase steadily in May,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic, in a released statement. “While the market is consistently generating home price growth, sales activity is being hindered by a lack of inventory across many markets. This tight inventory is also impacting the rental market where overall single-family rent inflation was 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in May of this year compared with May of last year. Rents in the affordable single-family rental segment (defined as properties with rents less than 75% of the regional median rent) increased 4.7% over the same time, well above the pace of overall inflation.”

“For current homeowners, the strong run-up in prices has boosted home equity and, in some cases, spending,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “For renters and potential first-time homebuyers, it is not such a pretty picture. With price appreciation and rental inflation outstripping income growth, affordability is destined to become a bigger issue in most markets.”

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