MARLBOROUGH, Mass.–Credit union leaders hopeful the coronavirus pandemic will end sooner rather than later so the world can return to “normal” were offered a sobering reminder of how serious the situation is during a discussion hosted by the Cooperative Credit Union Association (CCUA).
The discussion was the second in a four-part series being hosted by the CCUA on continuity planning. The hour-long Q&A featured Dr. Nicolas Argy (who is also an attorney), Mike McKenna of Comprehensive Benefits Administrators, and Frank J. Diekmann, cooperator-in-chief at CUToday.info. It was moderated by the CCUA’s Walter Laskos.
The call was the second on which Argy was a featured presenter, having earlier addressed credit unions in the four states served by the CCUA—Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Delaware—on March 11.
What’s been learned about COVID-19 since March 11? According to Argy, he and others have spent considerable time working to cut through much of the “political spin” and misinformation in the media so there is “transparency and honesty so people can work together to solve these problems. We’re still trying to flatten the curve and mitigate.”
Can’t Let Guard Down
Argy said it has been encouraging to see people reaching out to get the right information from medical experts and to see more people wearing masks to protect themselves.
“We’ve seen other countries successfully use social distancing,” said Argy. “We’re beyond the stage of containment. The sooner we realize we shouldn’t be traveling all over the place, the better. This concept that we should only address the hot spots is a real misstatement. We need to obey stay-at-home orders until we can get this under control. We don’t need to let our guard down as there may be reoccurrences.”
Argy called on everyone to treat everyone else with the highest degree of care.
“We should just assume that in this current environment if you have to go out, assume everybody you are interacting with is infected with coronavirus,” said Argy. “In this way people can be prudent and cautious. Until we can establish that viruses can count, we should stay away from people, period, and just stay socially distant. That should continue indefinitely until we get obvious evidence that we are past the steep part of the curve.”
Not Worse than the Flu? Wrong
Argy spoke to a point raised by some people in social and mass media that coronavirus is no worse than the standard influenza that strikes every year and which kills between 50,000-100,000 people each year.
“The good news is the current mortality rate, other than in Italy, is around the 2% and tons of people are spinning it to saying it’s the equivalent of influenza, which is an absolute misstatement,” said Argy. “Today, there are close to seven-billion people, and various models anticipate between 40% to 70% spread, which would mean up to four-billion or more people could get this virus in a worst-case scenario. Even with a 2% mortality, you’re talking about 80-million people dying. I don’t think it will be that severe, but we’re getting pixels of a picture but don’t have enough pixels to make out what the true picture is.”
Questions from Credit Unions
Argy fielded a number of questions from credit unions participating in the call, including:
Is it true the rising temperatures that come with summer will mitigate coronavirus?
“There is a lot of wishful thinking in that regard, and the real answer is we don’t know,” answered Argy. “The reality is coronavirus is spreading pretty aggressively in Australia, and it’s summer there.”
What about the concept of a rolling calendar for people to isolate?
“The concept of the rolling calendar is crucially important. Even if you took the entire world and froze it, forced everyone to remain place for 14 days and then restarted lives again, the question is would we then cure the virus? The problem is it depends on when you got infected and where you are incubation period, or if your incubation lasts a little longer, it may not be the perfect opportunity for curing and getting rid of the virus altogether. Even though you isolate for 14 days, every time you go to the supermarket you roll the 14 days forward. The degree of interaction in the population flattens the curve.”
What about a vaccine?
“I want to be as optimistic and upbeat as possible, and a vaccine needs to be transparently discussed. Vaccines don’t appear for 12-18 months. It took six years to develop the Ebola vaccine. In many, we’re never able to create a vaccine. A vaccine is given to healthy people. It’s crucially important that it’s not only effective, but is also safe. You don’t want to give a vaccine that exacerbates the situation.”
Is it true the coronavirus could be around for at least two more years?
“Again, we don’t have definitive answers. Probably four to five weeks ago the CDC announced this could last until 2021, which was not widely publicized, as forces at play thought we’d be back to normal by Easter. The reality is again, as students of history, the Spanish flu (a century ago) lasted from 18 months to two years and it had three peaks. We don’t understand why. And Dr. Tony Fauci, who I think is superb and who has not succumbed to spin and politics, has already said he thinks there will be a resurgence in the Fall. I hope we’re back to normal in three months to six months, but be prepared for a bit longer of a haul than what you might hear from the optimists.”
Moving Forward
“Moving forward, we should always wash our hands and practice the concept of presenteeism,” said Argy. “If you are ever sick, please stay at home and socially distance from people in your family. Hopefully, the lesson will be life-long. It’s a valuable takeaway lesson that in years to come will definitely save lives.”
Argy added, “We want to end on an upbeat note. If we engage in acts of love and kindness and compassion, we will get through this together.”