SANTA MONICA, Calif.– A new forecast sees 1,221,092 million vehicles being sold during September, down 12% from one year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
The forecast, from TrueCar and its ALG, Inc. subsidiary, further estimate the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.8 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar and ALG expect U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,111,397 units, a decrease of 6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 3.5% or $1,223 from a year ago and up 0.4% or $156 from August 2020.
Other predictions:
- Total retail sales for September 2020 are expected to be down 6% from a year ago and down 4% from August 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for September 2020 are expected to be down 45% from a year and up 0.2% from August 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 13% from a year ago from 17.1 million units to 14.8 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for September 2020 are expected to reach 3.8 million, up 11% from a year ago and down 1% from August 2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicles are 5.7% and the average interest rates on used vehicles are 8.2%.
Used Vehicle Forecast is Up
“The automotive industry continues to perform better than initially expected with retail sales down just 6% compared with last year. We’re also seeing one of the best SAARs since March and used vehicles forecast to be up year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month,” said Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst for ALG. “From a quarterly perspective, new vehicle retail sales are up 27% and used vehicle sales are up 26% quarter over quarter.”
“Large truck sales continue to spike as many consumers gravitate toward home improvement projects to enrich their home environment where they are also working and spending more of their leisure time,” added Lyman.
Inventory Down, Tesla Jumps
Added Nick Wollard, director of OEM Analytics with TrueCar, "Inventory levels are still low for certain popular models across brands as supply continues to play catch up from production pauses a few months ago. That being said, brands with a fresh lineup of diverse inventory of in-demand SUVs, such as Hyundai, are seeing some of the highest jumps in retail sales and average transaction prices year-over-year
“For this quarter, we are seeing certain automakers make significant increases in retail market share, which is difficult in such a competitive industry. Both Kia and Hyundai have jumped in retail share with successful launches into popular segments that are resonating with consumers,” Woolard continued. “Electric vehicle maker Tesla has also made one of the biggest jumps in retail market share, thanks to its popular Model 3 and the newly released Model Y, which continue Tesla’s sales momentum.”