WASHINGTON—National home prices are expected to grow of 3.8% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, Fannie Mae is predicting in its Q1 2024 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES).
The HPES is based on a survey of more than 100 experts across the housing and mortgage industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI).
The study’s latest estimates of national home price growth are higher than last quarter’s expectations of 2.4% for 2024 and 2.7% for 2025.
Higher Upside Risk
In addition, an increased share of survey panelists indicated higher upside risk to their home price forecasts – 41% in Q1 2024 compared to 26% in Q4 2023 – “with a majority citing ongoing housing supply constraints and lower mortgage rates as the basis for that belief,” Fannie Mae said.
The panel also projects a median 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6% by the end of 2024.
“On average, our panelists continue to expect home price growth to decelerate this year, but their overall outlook was revised upward this quarter, with most now reporting greater upside risk to home prices than downside risk,” said Hamilton Fout, Fannie Mae vice president of economics. “If mortgage rates move toward the panel-predicted 6% median rate by the end of 2024, we would expect this to be supportive of continued home price growth, particularly given the persistent supply-side challenges facing the housing market.”
Results of the Q1 2024 survey can be found here.
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