ARLINGTON, Va.–Like every other market analyst, NAFCU’s chief economist, Curt Long, said he will be among those watching the Federal Reserve’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., later this week for its plans for ongoing asset purchases—and the resulting direction of rates.
Long said he found “no surprises” in the release last week of the minutes from the Fed’s July meeting. As CUToday.info reported, the minutes generally indicate a Fed seeking to find a middle ground between tapering bond purchases while providing assistance to an economy still seeking to recover from the coronavirus lockdowns.
“Everyone right now will be focused on when Chairman (Jay) Powell speaks during a virtual event on Friday,” noted Long. “I think what he is going to try to do is play it down the middle a bit, which is to signal an end to the asset purchases is coming, but that does not mean a rate hike.”
An Unusual Employment Market
One of the key market indicators the Fed always watches is employment. But the current employment market is unlike just about any that has come before it, and it’s been further complicated by some employers, including credit unions, mandating vaccinations against COVID-19 as a condition of employment.
“The interesting thing right now is it is a unique labor market,” agreed Long. “There is a lot of unemployment, but also a lot of job openings.”
For workers unwilling to get vaccinated despite rules by their employer, Long noted those workers appear to have plenty of options and the requirements are not a “deal-breaker.”