WASHINGTON–The newly released March jobs report shows nonfarm payrolls expanded by 431,000 for the month, while the unemployment rate was 3.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Meanwhile, an alternative measure of unemployment, which includes “discouraged workers” and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell to a seasonally adjusted 6.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
The jobless rate, that is the labor force participation rate, increased one-tenth of a percentage point to 62.4% and is now within one point of its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. The labor force grew by 418,000 workers and is now within 174,000 of the pre-pandemic state.
Average hourly earnings, a closely watched inflation metric, increased 0.4% on the month, in line with expectations. On a 12-month basis, pay increased nearly 5.6%, just above the estimate. The average work week, which figures into productivity, edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
NAFCU View
"The March jobs report was another strong one, with job growth meeting expectations, positive prior-month revisions, and the return of strong wage growth,” said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long. “The benefits of waning COVID cases were evident, as the number of employees absent due to illness declined by 490,000, and unemployment among women who maintain families dropped sharply. February’s minimal wage increase was revised upward, and March average wages grew by a sturdy 13 cents. This report should support a 50 basis point rate hike from the FOMC next month."
The CUNA View
“The economy posted strong job growth in March as consumer demand continued to increase due to subsiding Omicron cases,” said CUNA Senior Economist Dr. Dawit Kebede. “The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% — edging closer to a pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. A quarter of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality as consumers are feeling more comfortable traveling and engaging in-person.
“Labor force participation increased slightly indicating more people are re-entering the job market. However, it is still lower than the pre-pandemic participation level, leading employers to increase wages to attract workers. Average hourly earnings increased 5.4% in the last 12 months.
“Continued increase in wage growth will lead to more price increases as businesses transfer these costs to consumers,” Kebede continued. “This impacts low-wage earners who are already struggling to make ends meet with price increases in broad consumer items.”
Hospitality Rebound
As has been the case through much of the pandemic era, leisure and hospitality led job creation with a gain of 112,000. Professional and business services contributed 102,000 to the total, while retail was up 49,000 and manufacturing added 38,000. Other sectors reporting gains included social assistance (25,000), construction (19,000) and financial activities (16,000).