WASHINGTON–A new economic update has been released by CUNA’s senior economist, Dawit Kebede.
The findings in the November 2023 CUNA Economic Update include:
- CUNA’s forecast group –which includes seven current and former CUNA economists—pegs the odds of recession through year-end 2024 at 33%.
- CUNA economists believe the Federal Reserve will hold rates and not continue rate hikes. “Many people who were on student loan forbearance accumulated a lot of debt,” said Kebede. “However, research from Arizona University broken down by financial institutions indicates that credit union members did not accumulate significant debt during this period. Credit union members increased their debt by 8.45%, compared to 25%-30% for banks and national credit card companies.”
- Gross domestic product (GDP) will track 2.5% growth in 2023, with CUNA forecasting 1.5% GDP growth in 2024 as consumer spending slows.
- The unemployment rate will remain around 3.9%, but will increase to 4.3% in 2024.
- CUNA economists are predicting year-end credit union savings growth of 0% and loan growth of 8%. In 2024, they forecast 4% loan growth and 3% savings growth.
- Credit unions’ loan-to-savings ratio was 85.1% as of September 2023, up from 81.5% at year-end 2022. By year-end 2023, CUNA economists predict this measure will reach 88.3%—a 40-year high. The delinquency and charge-off forecast for 2023 is 0.75% and 0.55%, respectively.
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