WASHINGTON—America’s Credit Unions Chief Economist Curt Long said the organization’s forecast group expects modest economic growth and additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before year-end.
Speaking on a call with the media Monday, Long said ACU’s outlook calls for GDP growth of about 1.8% in the fourth quarter, with the unemployment rate rising to around 4.5%. He added that the group anticipates two more Fed rate cuts before 2025 closes.
Long noted that the Consumer Price Index report due Friday will be especially significant given the ongoing government shutdown, which has delayed the release of many federal data series.
“In a world where we don’t have a lot of government data at our disposal right now, that probably carries a little bit more weight than it otherwise would,” he said.
He emphasized that ACU’s outlook remains consistent with broader market expectations, as policymakers and investors increasingly expect continued monetary easing to support the softening labor market.
A video presentation of ACU’s updated forecast is expected to be released in the coming weeks, Long said.