LAS VEGAS — TransUnion says strong consumer intent to buy vehicles in 2026 signals meaningful lending opportunities for auto finance providers, even as affordability pressures persist and market conditions remain uneven.
Speaking at the 2026 AFSA Vehicle Finance Conference, the company reported that roughly four in ten U.S. adults plan to purchase a vehicle—most within the next year—suggesting sustained demand that could support both new-loan originations and refinancing activity across credit tiers.
TransUnion surveyed 3,076 U.S. consumers age 18 and older. Among them, 1,190 respondents say they intend to buy a vehicle—39% of the total sample—showing that vehicle purchases rank high on consumers’ priority lists.
More than 80% of consumers who indicated intent to buy a vehicle expect to purchase within the next 12 months. This trend holds across all generations. Additionally, 65% of prospective buyers expect to trade in their current vehicle, which supports the market for used cars.
“New vehicle purchases remain a clear priority for consumers, with more than a third of those surveyed planning to buy a car within the next 12 months,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president of financial services at TransUnion. “This intent to purchase points to solid underlying market demand and could meaningfully increase used‑car supply as shoppers replace existing vehicles.”
Among consumers planning a vehicle transaction, 87% intend to buy, and 13% intend to lease. Younger generations express greater interest in leasing—17% of Gen Z and Millennials compared with 7% of Baby Boomers—reflecting a preference for flexibility and lower upfront and ownership costs.
These leasing trends emerged as auto loan originations began to rise in 2025, driven by anticipation of tariffs and, to a lesser extent, the end of the EV tax credit. Super prime and subprime segments led this growth, despite ongoing challenges related to affordability, the company said.
Affordability remains the most significant obstacle for consumers not planning to buy: 53% cite cost concerns, and 44% cite economic uncertainty. Whether these barriers lessen will depend on the direction of vehicle prices, interest rates and improving consumer confidence.
Traditional Gas Vehicles Still Lead, But Hybrid And EV Interest Continues To Grow
Half of prospective buyers indicated they intend to purchase a traditional gas-powered vehicle compared to 33% for hybrids and 16% for electric vehicles (EVs). Millennials show a slight preference for hybrids over gas-powered vehicles, while Gen Z favors traditional gas models. Still, nearly half of all respondents say they remain open to considering an EV in the future.
Consumers interested in EVs cite lower fuel costs (72%), environmental benefits (66%) and new technology features (62%) as key reasons. Those who do not consider EVs cite preference for combustion engines (51%), range anxiety (41%), limited charging infrastructure (34%) and price concerns (37%).
Older consumers considering future EV purchases emphasize fuel savings and environmental benefits, whereas Gen Z places additional value on advanced technology and features, TransUnion said.
“Internal combustion powertrains still dominate because affordability and charging infrastructure continue to challenge EV adoption,” said Satyan Merchant, senior vice president of auto and mortgage business leader at TransUnion. “Millennials show increasing interest in hybrids, while Gen Z leans toward traditional gas vehicles—likely due to affordability constraints. Audience segmentation and credit‑based targeting tools enable lenders to pinpoint affordability‑driven consumers across generations who are most likely to be ready to enter the auto market in the near term.”