CHICAGO—A new forecast calls for auto loan debt among U.S. consumers to continue to rise next year, closing out 2015 at $18,244—and delinquencies to increase, as well.
TransUnion makes the projection in its annual auto loan forecast, noting that if auto loan debt steadily increases next year it would mark 19 consecutive quarters of increases since Q1 2011, when auto loan debt per borrower stood at $14,954.
The TransUnion forecast calls for the national auto loan delinquency rate—ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due—to end 2014 at 1.20%, and increase slightly to 1.27% at the end of 2015.
"We expect the auto loan market to continue to perform exceptionally well in 2015, with more sales leading to continued increases in auto loan debt per borrower as the national portfolio gets younger on average," said Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit. "We anticipate the economy to continue to improve next year, with a better employment picture helping the auto industry. While the auto loan delinquency rate has slowly risen to a point where it will be above 2010 levels, we are still far off the peaks observed in 2008 and 2009 when delinquencies were more than 30 basis points higher."
Since 2007, the auto loan delinquency rate has been as low as 0.86% in Q2 2012 and as high as 1.59% in Q4 2008, TransUnion reported. On average, the delinquency rate during the fourth quarter between 2007 and 2013 was 1.29%.