WASHINGTON—The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in February by 1.2 points to 76.5. Four of the HPSI’s six components fell month over month, including most notably the homebuying conditions and household income components.
Offsetting much of that decline, however, was increased optimism regarding job security, with consumers reporting a significantly more positive view of the labor market compared to January. Year over year, the HPSI is down 16.0 points, the agency said.
“As we expected, the HPSI remained relatively flat in February, but underlying data indicate growing job-related optimism among consumers, especially among lower-income and renter groups,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “With the growing likelihood that lockdown restrictions will continue easing as vaccination efforts ramp up, and with warmer weather on the horizon and another round of fiscal stimulus pending, these two segments of consumers may have good reason to feel more positive about the labor market.
‘Room for Improvement’
“This optimism appears to be well-placed, too, given Friday's jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed the strongest net gain in payroll employment since October, although the unemployment rate remains quite high by historical standards,” Duncan continued. “However, other components of the index remain well below pre-pandemic levels, so we believe there may still be room for improvement in housing and economic attitudes in the coming months, depending in part on the future path of mortgage rates.”
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Among the highlights of Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index:
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 52% to 48%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 37% to 43%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 10 percentage points month over month.
- Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 57% to 55%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell increased from 33% to 35%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 4 percentage points month over month.
- Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased from 41% to 47%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 17% to 18%. The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from 34% to 29%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up increased 5 percentage points month over month.
- Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 9% to 8%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 45% to 47%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 37% to 38%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 3 percentage points month over month.
- Job Concerns: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 75% to 82%, while the percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 24% to 17%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 14 percentage points month over month.
- Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 21% to 17%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 14% to 19%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 64% to 61%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased nine percentage points month over month, Fannie Mae said.