Existing Home Sales Fall for 12th Straight Month; Here's What CU Economist Forecasts

WASHINGTON–Existing-home sales fell for the 12th straight month in January, according to newly released data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Month-over-month sales were mixed among the four major U.S. regions, as the South and West registered increases, while the East and Midwest experienced declines, the NAR said, adding that all regions recorded year-over-year declines.

Curt Long

"Homebuilders and realtors alike shared anecdotes of increased foot traffic during January as a drop in mortgage rates brought buyers off the sidelines,” said NAFCU Chief Economist and VP of Research Curt Long. “But sales nevertheless sunk to a post-financial crisis low due to constrained supply. NAFCU expects stable sales volume in 2023, with any rate volatility simply impacting price growth." 

The NAR reported total existing-home sales, represented by completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slid 0.7% from December 2022 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January. Year-over-year, sales retreated 36.9% (down from 6.34 million in January 2022).

What the Data Show

According to the NAR:

  • Total housing inventory registered at the end of January was 980,000 units, up 2.1% from December and 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). 
  • Unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from December but up from 1.6 months in January 2022.
  • The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $359,000, an increase of 1.3% from January 2022 ($354,300), as prices climbed in three out of four U.S. regions while falling in the West. This marks 131 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record, the NAR said.
  • Properties typically remained on the market for 33 days in January, up from 26 days in December and 19 days in January 2022. Fifty-four percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.
  • First-time buyers were responsible for 31% of sales in January, identical to December but up from 27% in January 2022. 
  • All-cash sales accounted for 29% of transactions in January, up from 28% in December and 27% in January 2022.
  • Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 16% of homes in January, unchanged from December but down from 22% in January 2022.
  • Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 1% of sales in January, identical to last month and one year ago.
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