OMAHA, Neb.–A “blue wave” may not occur in the upcoming midterm elections–although Democrats are likely to pick up seats–but regardless of the outcome, the gridlock isn’t going to be getting any better, according to one political analyst.
Speaking to the Nebraska league’s Fall Advocacy Conference here, Dr. Randall Adkins, associate dean and professor at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, said the polling data “doesn’t bode well right now for the Republicans.”
Noting the president’s party often loses seats at the midterms, numerous other factors are also contributing to uncertainty around Republicans’ ability to maintain their majority in Congress, most especially in the House.
“There has only been one time in 50 years a president’s party has gained seats,” Adkins told the meeting.
With six weeks to go until the general elections, Adkins said the Democrats have “solid locks” on 182 seats in the House, while the GOP has locked down 148 seats. The difference will be those seats he said are “pure toss-ups,” which represent 39 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats, he said.
Operational Control, But…
“Can the Democrats get to 218 seats (needed to control the House)?” asked Adkins. “It’s entirely possible they could and would control the House of Representatives. But what they will have is what I would classify as organizational control but not operational control, meaning there will be a Democratic chairman and leadership, but they won’t have operational control because it will be really easy for them to lose five or seven seats on a vote. It’s very hard to keep that 208 number on every vote.”
In the House, said Adkins, “I’m not seeing that big of a blue wave, but am seeing the Democrats picking up seats. I think we’re going to have a Speaker (Nancy) Pelosi (D-CA), and you should get used to that. But I don’t think it’s going to be that big a margin.”
The Senate is more difficult to forecast, he said. He noted the current 51-49 Republican majority may not change, even if a number of seats change.
“In the Senate, it could go either way. It could be (Mitch) McConnell (R-KY) still in charge, or it could be (Chuck) Schumer (D-NY) in the Senate.”
Expect Many Investigations
What will change with new House leadership, said Adkins, is the focus of the lower chamber.
“If the Democrats take the House, they are going to investigate the heck out of President Trump,” he said. “Don’t be surprised if sometime in next two years we even see impeachment proceedings brought. But remember the lessons of the Clinton impeachment: if you don’t have enough support in the Senate, then you overplay your hand. Conviction on impeachment is really a political vote.”
Adkins also offered one other assessment that will cheer few people in either party: “I expect to see lots of gridlock for the next two years in D.C.”