WASHINGTON–The chances of a recession have “meaningfully risen,” according to one economist who frequently speaks to credit union events.
Dr. Elliot Eisenberg, known as the “bowtie economist” during his animated presentations, said in a tweet the chances of such a recession are now “50%.”
“Driving the rise: an inevitable European recession, soaring Italian fatalities resulting in a rich western democracy locking down all of its population, and a sudden steep decline in oil prices,” stated Eisenberg. “While the decline helps consumers, it will precipitate a huge number of energy firm defaults and hammer corporate investment. Looser monetary and fiscal policy now!”
Eisenberg is a former senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, is the creator of the multifamily stock index (the first nationally recognized index to track the total return of public firms principally involved in the ownership and management of apartments), and the author of more than 85 articles.