Economic Momentum Slows As GDP Dips In Early 2025

WASHINGTON—Real gross domestic product declined at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, following a 2.4% increase in real GDP during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the second estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports, BEA stated.

Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting an upward revision to investment that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports, BEA explained.

“Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.5 percentage point from the previous estimate,” BEA said.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.3%in the first quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6%, the same as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.4%, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate, BEA said.

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