WASHINGTON—Economic growth for the remainder of 2021 will be below an original forecast, according to CUNA, which has updated its June economic forecast.
The changes in the forecast, according to CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede, include:
- The economy is expected to grow 6.0% in 2021, revised down from 6.5% in the previous forecast.
- Inflation is expected to increase 5.5% in 2021 (compared to 3.0% in the previous forecast) due to heightened consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.
- The unemployment rate will improve slightly in 2021 and fall to 4.8%, down from 5.0% in the previous forecast.
- The 10-year treasury yield was revised down by 0.5 percentage points in 2021 and 2022, to 1.5% and 2.0%, respectively.
- Savings growth for 2021 was revised down from 15.0% to 12.0% based on strong second quarter performance.
- Membership growth was revised up slightly by half a percentage point for 2021 and 2022.
- Finally, the net charge-off rate was revised down by 14 basis points for 2021 based on a historic low record for the second quarter, CUNA said.
The CUNA forecast can also be viewed in this Economic Update video.