NEW YORKâThe overall delinquency rate on U.S. commercial real estate loans ticked up ever so slightly in October, bringing to an end six straight months of declines, according to the Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate. The overall rate, however, had fallen in 14 of the last 15 months prior to October.
The overall delinquency rate for U.S. commercial real estate loans in CMBS is now 3.42%, an increase of one basis point from the September reading, according to Trepp.
Still, the October 2018 rate is 179 basis points lower than the year-ago level, the company said in its analysis. Year-to-date, the reading has fallen 147 basis points. The post-crisis low of 3.41% was set last month. The all-time high of 10.34% was registered in July 2012, Trepp said.
The Overall Numbers
- The overall U.S. CMBS delinquency rate rose one basis point to 3.42% in October.
- The percentage of loans that are seriously delinquent (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO, or non-performing balloons) is now 3.38%, up three basis points from September.
- If defeased loans were taken out of the equation, the overall 30-day delinquency rate would be 3.55%, two basis points higher month over month, Trepp said.
- One year ago, the U.S. CMBS delinquency rate was 5.21% (down 179 basis points since then).
- Six months ago, the US CMBS delinquency rate was 4.36% (down 116 basis points since then).
The CMBS 2.0+ Numbers
According to Trepp:
- The CMBS 2.0+ delinquency rate climbed 12 basis points to 0.62% in October.
- The percentage of 2.0+ loans that are seriously delinquent is now 0.58%, 14 basis points higher from the September level.
- If defeased loans were taken out of the equation, the overall 30-day delinquency rate would be 0.64% which is up 14 basis points month over month.
- The CMBS 1.0 delinquency rate was 46.36% in October, a drop of 39 basis points.
- The percentage of 1.0 debt that is seriously delinquent is now 46.33%, 34 basis points lower from September.
- If defeased loans were taken out of the equation, the overall 30-day delinquency rate for CMBS 1.0 would be 49.96%, a month-over-month decrease of 33 basis points.
Overall Property Type Analysis (CMBS 1.0 and 2.0)
Other Trepp data show:
- The industrial delinquency rate fell 17 basis points to 2.81%.
- The lodging delinquency reading came down by 29 basis points to 1.98%.
- The multifamily delinquency rate dropped seven basis points to 1.88%. Multifamily remains the best performing major property type.
- The office delinquency rate declined one basis point to 3.93%.
- The retail delinquency rate increased 38 basis points to 5.39%. Retail remains the worst performing major property type.