NEW YORK–A demographic trend combined with other factors taking place worldwide could help accelerate the spread of adoption of auto-sharing services and self-driving cars.
One of the big trends: large urban centers such as London, Madrid and Mexico City are now restricting access by automobiles into the cities, often by charging high fees and tolls, especially at peak hours. Most of the world’s major cities have seen population increases as more people, especially younger people, relocate and prefer to not own an automobile. Those who need an automobile in cities are increasingly turning to ride-sharing services, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Businessweek.
“When you put all these trends together, you’re going to see a cap on personal vehicle ownership start to emerge,” Mike Ramsey, an automotive consultant with researcher Gartner Inc., told Bloomberg Business. “We are near peak car.”
Bloomberg Business noted that just a decade ago the auto manufacturers were predicting total annual automobile sales would top 100 million by now, but that number stalled at 94.2 million in 2018, a decline of one million vehicles from 2017.
‘Reurbanization Trend’
“Rather than signaling the end of the road for the automobile, peak car is a reflection that reurbanization and the widespread adoption of mobile apps that can summon a vehicle on demand will lessen the need for many of the 1.3 billion vehicles now on the road,” Ramsey said in the report.
He added that while automakers “may talk a good game,” the companies are increasingly chasing profits from services that charge by the mile.