Crystal Ball 1.0: Bond Markets Signal ‘Good Chance’ of Recession in Next Year

NEW YORK–The bond market signals are flashing “a pretty good chance of a recession sometime in the next year or so,” according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman.

Paul Krugman

Krugman told CNBC that China is struggling economically and Europe may already be in a recession. But he also believes it is unlikely that only one factor will cause the next financial downturn. The deflation of a tech bubble and corporate debt could also come into play, CNBC reported.

“While President Donald Trump boasts about the economy, Krugman insists U.S. GDP growth is not superb and simply within regular fluctuations,” CNBC stated. “Krugman says the average American cares less about GDP and more about their paychecks. Anemic wage growth, despite the low unemployment rate, is ‘something of a mystery.’”

Krugman further touched on the weakening of labor unions as a result of “policy choices” in the United States, which he says, can change.

The video of Krugman’s full interview can be found here.

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