CHICAGO—TransUnion’s 2026 credit originations forecast points to continued growth in consumer lending, led by mortgages and unsecured personal loans, even as demand across other credit categories remains mixed.
The forecast, released alongside the company’s Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report, indicates consumer borrowing expanded through the end of 2025 and is expected to remain positive into 2026, though at a more moderate pace as credit markets continue to normalize.
According to TransUnion, mortgage originations — including both purchase and refinance activity — are expected to build on a two-year recovery from near-record lows, while unsecured personal loans are projected to post a third straight year of annual growth. The company said those segments will likely serve as the primary drivers of lending expansion next year.
The outlook suggests consumer appetite for credit remains resilient despite broader economic uncertainty, but growth rates are expected to slow compared with 2025 as lenders and borrowers adjust to a more balanced credit environment.
“Credit cards are also expected to see a modest increase in originations for 2026; however, it’s worth noting that this expansion comes on the heels of near-record growth in 2025. Auto loan originations are expected to edge lower, following 2025 gains that were driven largely by consumers who accelerated purchases in advance of anticipated tariffs and the end of the EV tax credit,” TransUnion said.
“We expect lending activity to remain measured across most categories as lenders take a disciplined approach to profitable growth, using more data and services to better manage risk and fraud,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “At the same time, consumer demand for credit remains strong across risk tiers and will likely strengthen further if interest rates fall more than expected in the coming quarters.”
Transunion’s Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report Saw Originations Gains As Delinquencies Edged Up
TransUnion said early signs of this forecasted originations growth can be seen when looking back to late 2025, where year-over-year increases emerged across credit cards, unsecured personal loans and auto. At the same time, more consumers continued to drift away from the mid-level risk tiers and toward the highest and lowest risk tiers, reshaping portfolio dynamics for lenders. After remaining unchanged for the past several years, the median VantageScore posted a YoY decline in Q4 2025, down 2 points to 711, signaling a subtle, but meaningful change in overall consumer credit health.
“After several years marked by credit behaviors influenced by stubbornly high inflation and elevated interest rates, we may be seeing signs of a return to more traditional growth,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “As these more typical patterns return, it’s more important than ever for lenders to leverage advanced tools, including trended data, to more accurately assess evolving risk profiles.”