Consumer Prices Give Hint Over How Fed Might Act on Rates

ARLINGTON, Va.—On a seasonally adjusted basis, overall consumer prices rose 0.1% in January following a 0.2% rise in December. One result of that, according to NAFCU Vice President of Research and Chief Economist Curt Long, is he expects no rate hikes by the Fed in 2020.

"The energy index fell 0.7% this month, fueled by a 1.6% decrease in gasoline prices," said Long. "Used car prices fell 1.2% in January and are down 2% from a year ago.

“The Fed’s preferred measure of price growth – PCE inflation – is lower than CPI and remains below the Fed’s 2% target. Fed officials have signaled that they will wait until price pressures materialize before raising rates again,” Long concluded.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the overall consumer price index (CPI) grew 2.5% over the 12-month period. Core prices (excluding food and energy costs) increased 0.2% in January compared to the previous month. Year-over-year core CPI growth was 2.3%.

Energy prices fell 0.7% in January, following a 1.6% rise in December. Food growth grew 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.

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