NEW YORK–While credit unions are not significant lenders in the mobile home space, newly released data will still be worth paying attention to, with at least one analyst calling the numbers a potential “canary in a coal mine.”
According to research released by UBS, mobile-home loan delinquencies are up 2% year-over-year. In addition, the 30-day-plus delinquency rate has reached nearly 5%, its highest level since 2005.
Mobile-home 30-day-plus delinquencies, the UBS data show, began an upward climb around Q3 2016.
According to analysis by UBS, the increase in mobile-home delinquencies could be a sign that some lower-income Americans are not feeling the benefits of the ongoing economic recovery and growth. UBS reported a survey it conducted found that roughly three out of five consumers making less than $40,000 a year indicated that they struggled to pay their expenses.
“We interpret this data to mean that these individuals have not largely benefitted from these macro-dynamics, and may also be disproportionately exposed to industries that have experienced compression—rather than expansion—in the current economic conditions, such as retail or some areas of energy extraction,” UBS said in a statement.
UBS said it expects those trendlines will “drive higher credit losses at some stage over the next few years—particularly in credit card, installment, and student loans—with macroeconomic inflection from job growth to job loss as a likely catalyst.”