WASHINGTON—CUNA economists have provided an updated projection on the lasting impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
During a webinar that was also the first session in CUNA’s eSchool on managing economic and operational challenges during COVID-19, CUNA Chief Economist Mike Schenk, Senior Policy Analyst Samira Salem and Senior Economist Jordan van Rijn offered a forecast on what credit unions can expect in the time ahead.
As CUToday.info reported here, CUNA has also published a white paper offers specific insights on how certain credit unions will be affected by the economic shutdown from the pandemic.
Salem noted that the pandemic is impacting both the supply side and the demand side of the economy, but that since the fundamentals of the U.S. economy were generally solid pre-pandemic, it’s impact will likely not be as long-lasting as the previous decade’s Great Recession.
She further suggested the pandemic is not a financial crisis, nor a mortgage crisis, and it’s likely to be more rapid but more short-lived than the Great Recession, noting that Federal Reserve and government actions occurred more quickly than the Great Recession.
CU Operations
Meanwhile, in terms of credit union operations, van Rijn said credit unions should expect to see slower loan growth, lower earnings and slower membership growth, and smaller credit unions and those serving impacted and vulnerable populations could feel more of the impact.
He also shared recommendations from CUNA’s latest policy paper on the pandemic, that credit unions should look to regularly communicate with all stakeholders, support their members and employees, reconsider strategic plans, forecast different scenarios and look to return to the credit union’s mission and vision.
Schenk said CUNA will continue to update its economic forecast on a more regular basis due to the changes in COVID-19 related information that occur regularly around the world.