ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales fell 1.1% in November, following a 0.1% drop in the previous month. Of note, the October number was revised down 0.4 percentage points.
"The revisions make this month the second decline in a row, and rising COVID cases are clearly taking a toll," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long. "The biggest losers in November were those segments that have struggled throughout the pandemic: apparel, restaurants, electronics, and gas stations."
Year-over-year growth in retail sales was up 4.1% during the month, following a 5.4% rise in October. Control group sales were also up from a year ago, rising 4.8%.
Results among the major retail segments also showed declines. Compared to last month, clothing stores fell the most with a 6.8% drop, followed by food services places (-4%), and electronic stores (-3.5%). Food and beverage stores saw a 1.6% rise, followed by building materials stores (+1.1%).
Of note, nonstore retailers are up 19.2% compared to November 2019, Long said.
"It should be noted that retail sales in aggregate are up on the year and remain well above what was forecasted once the COVID crisis began," noted Long. "But the effects of the CARES Act are waning, and without more stimulus to bridge the period until the vaccine is widely available, commerce will be constrained.
"NAFCU expects more rocky months in the immediate future, followed by a surge in late spring if vaccination efforts are as effective as advertised," Long concluded.