CHICAGO—Auto originations were up 1.5% YoY in Q4 2024, although they still lagged 14.8% below the pre-pandemic Q3 2019. Super prime borrower originations led the way, up 8.5% YoY for the quarter, TransUnion reported.
“This growth was likely driven in part by increasingly available new inventory and increases in incentives. Other risk tiers saw YoY declines in originations, and when compared to 2019 levels, originations remained down across all risk tiers, with subprime seeing the largest decline (down 27.6%),” TransUnion said.
Likely also driven in part by incentives, leasing continued its rebound from its Q4 2022 low (17%), at 24% of new vehicle registrations in Q4 2024. Consumer-level delinquencies of 60+ days past due continued to tick up in Q4 2024 to 1.67%. This represented an increase of 6 basis points YoY.
New vehicle vintages continued to show delinquency performance in Q4 2024 consistent with pre-pandemic periods of 2018/2019. Used vehicle vintage delinquencies were slightly improved as compared to the 2022 cohort but remained worse than 2018/2019, TransUnion said.
“Super prime was the underlying driver of auto originations growth in Q4 2024, and will likely continue in 2025,” said Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion. “Affordability continues to be an issue for the used vehicle market and for below prime consumers, impacted by higher rates and cross-wallet inflation. This is unlikely to materially improve until we have more certainty around used vehicle inventory and interest rates. Delinquencies have now inched past highs previously seen in 2009, primarily driven by increases among below-prime risk tiers, and we will be monitoring them moving forward.”