August Jobs Numbers Strong, But Wages Lag Inflation, Notes Economist

Curt Long, NAFCU

WASHINGTON–The latest jobs numbers show employment remains strong, but at least one economist is concerned that worker pay is falling behind inflation.

According to the Department of Labor, the unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in August, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.2 million, changed little.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, in line with the average monthly gain of 196,000 over the prior 12 months.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5%), adult women (3.6%), teenagers (12.8%), Whites (3.4%), Blacks (6.3%), Asians (3.0%), and Hispanics (4.7%) showed little or no change in August, the DoL said.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed in August at 1.3 million and accounted for 21.5% of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 403,000, the department added.

"The big news from the August jobs report was the uptick in wage growth, which hit its high-water mark of the recovery at 2.9%. While that is a welcome development for workers, it is still only enough to offset inflation,” said NAFCU Chief Economist Curt Long. “The headline unemployment rate held at 3.9% as the labor force shrunk. However, broader measures of labor utilization improved, which suggests that the labor market continues to tighten. As far as the Fed is concerned, this report provides further evidence that we’re in store for two more rate hikes this year.”

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