After January’s Surge, Bad Weather Helps Contribute to a ‘Tumble’ in February

ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales slid 3% in February, following a 7.6% surge the previous month. Of note, the January number was revised up 2.3 percentage points.

Curt Long

"Retail sales took a tumble in February due to fading stimulus in January and winter storms shutting down parts of the country," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long. "With January’s strong upwardly revised surge, a decline was unsurprising.

"This appears to be a one-off, as weather events that hit states like Texas pass and a new stimulus package was approved in March," continued Long. "Reopenings are also bolstering growth and will play a larger role in the months to come."

Year-over-year growth in retail sales was up 6.5% during the month, down from 9.5% in January. Control group sales were also up from a year ago, rising 5.2%, the data show.

Varying Results

Results among the major retail segments were generally bad during the month. The sporting goods sector fell 7.5%, followed by nonstore retailers and general merchandise stores, both falling 5.4%. The only gain on the month was gas stations, rising 3.6%, Long said.

Within sectors, department stores fell (-8.4%) while grocery stores rose slightly (+0.1%).

"NAFCU expects a steady sales growth this year, with a sustained economic recovery as a tailwind, partially offset by the anticipated shift from goods to services," Long concluded.

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