ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales slowed in October, rising 0.3% following a 1.6% increase the previous month. Of note, the outsized September gains were revised down 0.3% percentage points.
"Whether this represents the start of a negative turn in consumption – either due to rising COVID cases or the potentially millions of unemployed workers reaching the end of their CARES Act savings – remains to be seen," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt. "It may be that consumption has merely settled in near its pre-crisis trend; after all, sales are still up by a healthy margin versus a year ago."
Year-over-year growth in retail sales was up 5.4% during the month, unchanged from September. Control group sales were also up from a year ago, rising 5.3%.
Results among the major retail segments also slowed in October. Compared to last month, nonstore retailers led with a 3.1% rise, up 29.1% from last year. Electronic stores grew 1.2%, while clothing and accessory stores and sporting goods stores both fell 4.2%, Long said.
"Consumption has been resilient through the pandemic, and NAFCU expects retail activity to remain fairly steady until a vaccine becomes available," Long concluded.